by John Woods

*Michigan Department of Career

Whether they’re using a crystal ball or complex statistical analysis, those who make a living predicting shifts and trends in the job market are in agreement: Over the next ten years, the job market will demand a well-trained, flexible and computer literate work force.

Reports by both the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Michigan Department of Career Development’s Office of Labor Marketing Information list computer related jobs, such as engineers, systems analysts and support specialists among the top ten fastest growing occupations. Personal home health care aides and medical assistants round out the federal government’s list of top ten fastest growth jobs.

Over the next ten years, the job market will demand a well-trained, flexible and computer literate work force

Fastest growing U.S. occupations 2000 – 2010* (increases within an occupation)

1. Computer software engineers, applications

2. Computer support specialists

3. Computer software engineers,

systems software

4. Network and computer systems

administrators

5. Network systems and data communications analysts

6. Desktop publishers

7. Database administrators

8. Personal and home care aides

9. Computer systems analysts

10. Medical assistants

*U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau

of Labor Statistics

"Whether you’re a programmer or not, you had better be proficient using a computer," says Don Grimes, senior research associate at the University of Michigan’s Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations. "Even people who drive trucks will have to use a computer for inventory control."

The numbers

Both the state and federal reports predict an overall 10 percent increase in employment in Michigan over the next ten years, which represents some 479,000 jobs in the state.

Although the occupations identified as having the most growth potential are largely computer-related, those occupations with the highest number of actual openings will require a variety of skill levels including on-the-job training.

According to the Michigan Occupational Outlook Report, the current economic slowdown, "is expected to turn around in mid-2002, and the long range outlook reflects employment growth," according to Brenda Njiwaji, director of the Office of Labor Market Information for the Michigan Department of Career Development.

LARGEST

U.S. occupations with the largest job growth* (increases as a percentage of total work force)

1. Combined food preparation, serving workers, including fast food

2. Customer service representatives 3. Registered nurses

4. Retail salespersons

5. Computer support specialists

6. Cashiers

7. Office clerks

8. Security guards

9. Computer software engineers, applications

10. Waiters

*U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

What’s up

The report also indicates that professional, technical and sales jobs will grow fastest and, 20 percent of these will require an associate’s degree. According to the Occupational Outlook Report, over 34,000 of the 479,000 new jobs in the state will require some type of post-secondary training. "The technical industries are taking on more employment," Njiwaji says. "That seems to be the emerging sector of the economy."

"The industries expected to have the largest actual number of jobs often tend to have the largest turnover, such as food service where you have a younger work force," says Chester Levine, manager of Occupational Outlook Studies for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"All the fastest growth jobs categories are not necessarily offering the most jobs," says Njiwaji. "For example, you may have a (large) category that has a lower growth rate, but is generating more actual jobs."

The report also identified occupations that could be in short supply over the next ten years. Those include teaching, health care, management and information technology. In southeast Michigan construction trades, engineering and law enforcement will be in big demand. "These areas are critical because it takes a long period of time to train people," Njiwaji says.

Health care for an aging population, particularly in nursing, will be a growth area in the coming decade, says Jim Locke, associate director of Career Services Center at Eastern Michigan University. "People are still going to get sick, and you are going to need teachers as well, even if there is a slow market," says Locke. However, with an aging baby boom population, health care providers will continue to be in demand. "It’s inevitable that as we are getting older, services for the elderly will increase and we will need more people who understand geriatrics, health care and social services," says Grimes.

What’s down

Predicting occupational market trends is not as easy as people would assume, says Grimes. "It’s actually easier to pick the ones that will decline; they tend to pop up pretty cleanly."

Although it’s hard to envision what type of technology we will be surrounded by in ten years, Grimes says it’s easy to see how job markets have been influenced by the computer chip.

"There will be fewer secretarial jobs, because senior managers are doing computer work on their own," says Grimes. "They used to have huge typing pools to take dictation; all that is gone."

And with the advent of the Internet, Grimes says travel agents are finding less work as people are now going online to book their own trips.

But remember

While positioning one’s self to take full advantage of the emerging market is important from a financial perspective, EMU’s Locke also offers some tried and true advice for job seekers.

"Some jobs are hot, some are not, but don’t just go to what makes the most money. Go to the jobs that you’re interested in and love doing. Figure out what that is first." occupations that could be in short supply over the next ten years… teaching, health care, management and information technology "It’s inevitable that as we are getting older, services for the elderly will increase and we will need more people who understand geriatrics, health care and social services..."

TOP